- Dear Bagambiki, don't you think they will have to stop and go back. Because I don't see how Kabila will extend the invitation, unless Rwanda wants to actually create a civil war inside a civil war, which won't be going down well in either countries. I have been thinking the direction of this mess is going to depend much on how Rwandan elections are being calculated and how the international community wants to stangle DRC or not, by an intense implosion in the circles of power. I have no idea as to whether Rwanda is waiting for that implosion so as to be able to go on hunting FDLR.
12 February 2009 07:25
- You're right Antoinette but ... how and why now and not later?Actually, there was no rational on the Rwandan military intervention in Kivu on this time unless some FDLR danger was planed from Congo.Though, this was in the air...All other reasons given by medias like Nkunda is receiving Rwandan support, are fake and rubbish. That could continue without big impact even on Rwanda economy. All parties are needing so bad Rwanda facilities.Since it's a deal between Kinshasa and Kigali, they can proceed with FDLR destruction.However, I don't see Kinshasa being reliable enough to go further even, as I think, the RDF can do it, defeating FDLR in some months but not in weeks.Actually, there won't be any civil war if no other outer third party is entering the "boogie-woogie" RDF expedition.Besides, there is some backup from GB but this gives no real guaranty for a happy end.Could this be a trivial trap where the Rwandan government and RDF jumped into without close and wise analyzing? More on that, why was it necessary to involve Nkunda's unfair capture when this is highly illegal in terms of international laws, as for me? I don't understand why this unless Nkunda had a secret contract with several people in Kinshasa, government, deputy and senat chambers to get rid of Kabila's mafia.That's why CNDP should keep organized for the backfire and before things become worse.CNDP should change its entire strategy to get less harmed people and to be able to recover from that join venture.Let's imagine Rwandan troops are going back home at the end of this month or even 2 later, who will stay with problems if it's not NCDP?Not the Ntaganda's one but the genuine one.What if Kabila also is gone? So, you see that things were prepared and done without clear reasons though it is going with the political stability of Congo.This could raise more questions than solutions soon.I recognize that I raise many questions than responses on them.
12 February 2009 22:06