Tuesday, 27 January 2009


Mais pas au grand jour, enfin, allez comprendre les propos subtiles de Guillaume Lacaille (eh oui, ICG) tels que rapportés ici:

With the arrest of Congolese rebel leader Gen. Laurent Nkunda last week in Rwanda, Congolese President Joseph Kabila would seem to have what he wanted from his surprise deal with Rwanda, inviting the Rwandan army in to help him clear out unwanted rebel groups.
General Nkunda, after all, had led a four-year rebellion against Congo's military in the name of protecting his Tutsi ethnic group against attacks from other ethnic militias, especially the FDLR, a Rwandan Hutu rebel group accused of launching the 1994 genocide against Tutsis. And earlier this year, Nkunda raised the stakes, promising to topple Kabila's government.
But if the price for removing one enemy, Nkunda, meant inviting in another enemy - the well-armed nation of Rwanda - into Congolese territory, why did Congo agree to the deal?
The answer appears to be a mixture of desperation, personal animosity, and incompetence. Given the history of Rwandan interventions in Congo, Kabila's people may pay the price for this deal for months and years to come.
"It seems that Kabila and his entourage were really nervous, and they had to do something big," says Guillaume Lacaille, a Congo expert for the International Crisis Group in Nairobi. Kabila has a history of making bold deals, particularly after his military options have run out and his own hold on power is threatened.
In December 2007, the Congolese Army launched an offensive against Nkunda that failed utterly, Mr. Lacaille says, and Kabila immediately initiated the Goma Peace Process to end the fighting and bring Nkunda and other smaller rebel groups to the negotiating table. Following the collapse of the Congolese Army after Nkunda's forces marched toward Goma in November, Kabila is now making a bold move: declaring a truce with his former enemy in order to weaken Nkunda's forces.
"It's a sign of a lack of long-term political vision," says Lacaille.
An incredibly rich country full of export-quality hardwoods, diamonds, gold, uranium, tin, and a high-tech-ready metal known as coltan, Congo also has one of the weakest armies in Africa, full of underpaid and undertrained troops, many of whom have been absorbed recently from ragtag rebel groups.
This fateful combination of wealth and weakness have made it an attractive site for plunder, both by former colonial European nations and by Congo's own better-armed neighbors in Africa, including Angola, Zimbabwe, Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda. In 1997, a joint operation by Ugandan, Rwandan, and Burundian troops helped Congolese rebel leader Laurent Kabila (Joseph's father) to overthrow the long-time dictator President Mobutu Sese Seko.
When Rwandan troops refused to leave, allegedly because of their interest in Congolese mines, President Kabila turned on his Rwandan sponsors and launched a second Congolese war from 2000 to 2003. The Rwandans retreated, but a sympathetic militia of ethnic Tutsis, led by Nkunda, soon took their place, and Congo alleges that Nkunda's forces were a proxy force to keep Congo unstable and weak.
A decade of war killed a staggering 5.4 million, according to UN figures, and nearly 200,000 Congolese remain displaced from their villages. The joint offensive by Congo's Army, Rwanda's Army, and Nkunda's former National Congress for the Defense of the People (CNDP), now commanded by indicted war criminal Gen. Bosco Ntaganda, is likely to displace and even kill more civilians. Nine Rwandan militiamen were killed and one Congo army soldier was wounded over the weekend, said Congolese military spokesman Capt. Olivier Hamuli.
For Rwanda, the current operation is a chance to finally root out the Rwandan Hutu militia known as the Democratic Force for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), which is composed mainly of people who sought refuge in the jungles of Congo after carrying out the mass murder of some 800,000 Tutsi and moderate Hutus in Rwanda in 1994.
Rwanda has said the joint operation will last only two weeks, but the members of the FDLR have settled in Congo and intermarried with locals since 1994. Moreover, the FDLR is expected to melt back into the jungle rather than fight against the better-organized Rwandan and Congolese forces, so rooting them out won't be easy. "Rwandans have been telling everybody who wants to listen ... that all they need is to be allowed back in [to Congo] to finish the job," says regional analyst Jason Stearns. "Now they have the chance, and if they don't do it, it's going to be very embarrassing for them."
Rwanda sees the roughly 6,500 fighters in the FDLR as an existential security threat. "They have continued their genocidal project on the other side of the border," Joseph Nsengimana, Rwanda's ambassador to the United Nations, told the Security Council in late December.
Not everyone believes Rwanda's motives are as transparent as its government is making them out to be, however. UN staff who work to disarm the FDLR say
Copyright © 2009 Christian Science Monitor, All Rights Reserved.


Anonymous said...

It belongs to the stupid wisdom of Maoism to say if the enemy fights us, it is good but not bad.
If capitalism does not like both Nkunda and CNDP and fights it, it is of course not good and a matter of concern.
If capitalism exterminates proletariat of Gaza this again is a matter of great concern. If this figure DON wants to eat up all Tutsis, this must not put asleep people but make them think.
Maoism undergoes at the moment a terrible decay. In one of it's great leaps forward the Chinese society suffers a great leap back into the middle age. This of course has effects on all Chinese puppets like Joseph Kabila. Baksheesh does not flow any more, his soldiers lack of everything so Joseph Kabila is forced to make coalition with his enemies for example Kagame in Rwanda. But this is the coalition of the loosers, of lonely government cliques run out of money. So it is fatal to think coalition with such figures would help. Nkunda did think so and we face another Lumumba tragedy in Congo. If Nkunda will end in the torture barracks of Kinshasa nobody must wonder. In recent time the diplomacy dwelt on balance of differernt factions in Nairobi. But diplomacy is just another method of warfare. If we look back at those meetings at Yalta with USSR, USA and Great Britain, what have they brought? Except some break in war, nothing. But Nairobi did not even bring a break in war. Behind the courtain the knives against Nkunda were sharpened, the intrigue prepared.
Joseph Kabila and his Chinese advisors said, if you want to catch a young tiger, you have to go in the cave of the tiger. This exactly happened. Now Kinshasa rejoices. But there is one proverb which says the one who laughs last laughs best.
Very often in this Blog the advice was given, not to focus just on Kivu. Kivu is not the middle of the world. For some time this was the case and vulture media landed non stop in Goma to lick the feet of Nkunda. Awful and disgusting scenes could be seen when mainstream media made Nkunda to a ridiculous puppet, what of course he never was. It was a pity press advisors did not intervene or prevent this.
The fish smells from the head, if the fish has no water it starts smelling. So the idea of vultures was to cut off the head of CNDP and peace will come to Kivu. Ties of CNDP to people can of course never be cut as long as there ones. The tactic of Joseph Kabila was to drive a wedge between CNDP and the people by making them flee to Goma in camps. Mainstream media showed the spectator, look here are the refugees and not far are CNDP to eat up refugees. The same method was used in WW 2 by Nazis. They told Germans you have to flee, Russians would rape and kill Germans. In reality Germans fled from hunger because Nazis and western Allies had practiced burnt soil.
Joseph Kabila is faced with war economy. Billions of §§ disappear for nothing. His famous elected state is bankrupt. He is forced to waste his riches for nothing to the joy if capitalists. Parasite economy is the result and this again the result of so many thieve gangs are looting and plundering Congo including himself.
But what is the difference between a good and a bad thieve? Most Congo warlords spend a good time in Europe guiding their business in Congo from safe heaven. So far the masters had clean fingers as it seemed. But for example Baroso, Chief of EU, had to drop Bemba in Portugal. For the sake of political hygiene he put Bemba to The Hague ICC. But only one as alibi does not work. There is a whole armada residing in Europe. Those having enough money buy citizienship but those having not enough are repelled. But again the air gets thin for those wealthy figures and the result is Thomas Lubanga sits at court in The Hague. All stolen money does not seem to have worked. This of course is the same for Joseph Kabila. When coming to Switzerland with gold in his diplomat luggage the red carpet was rolled out in Geneva. Switzerland known as cave of robbery of the globe has become great difficulties. Cracks in the banks of Bahnhofstrasse in Zurich become bigger and bigger. The drain of money from EU to Switzerland has stopped. EU says, if you do no stop this, your cheese will have embargo. So far peasants have been fed with money to remain calm. But the marriage with EU is inevitable. So Switzerland bows to the dictate of EU. No more Wilhelm Tell and freedom love. No more safe heaven for Joseph Kabilas bank accounts in Switzerland. Mobutus bank accounts were confiscated and Switzerland intended to return the money to elected Joseph Kabila. Why did he refuse so badly in need of money? It is quite easy. The stolen money of Mobutu transferred to his Swiss bank accounts could unveil the secret bank accounts of Joseph Kabila by some defined and controlled amount and the trap would work.
The fashion of frozen bank accounts seems to spread. Money makes the world go round or not. Swiss bankers are obliged nowadays to tell any suspicious money transfer and at the latest at the green Schengen frontier the trap will work with customs arrest. So all those boasting with millions in their hands have only one solution to spill it at St. Moritz. This of course makes all posessors of millions nervous. To kill they have to hire mercenairies. These again are expensive. Those of Joseph Kabila lack of solde and food and they are forced to loot. This again does not make friends. So the devil circle does not stop. If one thinks peace has come to Kivu by FRDC is naive. The disease is not out in contary worsens.
Joseph Kabila was not capable of building up a civil society. Wealth and peace has not come to Congo despite those elections. The problem was not Nkunda but he himself. Of course now international community stays calm on the virtues of Joseph Kabila. He is no different candidate for The Hague than Lubanga. During the rule of his father he got his virtues in Eastern Congo by doing no other than those gangs there. It was the fashion to satisfy foreign capitalist to make big business by looting Congo. Nkunda was the one to make dissident to this. What was his mistake to this? Of course hence international community feared when Nkunda might take over Kinshasa, Congo would be lost for ever like in Guinea. But as said earlier in this Blog from Gaza to Soveto via Nairobi and Kinshasa or Goma the problem is the same. The remains of capitalism emerge to a giant problem. In Gaza the idea was to make holocaust. If it works this will continue. If not there will be more problems. But as can be watched around the globe Gaza seemed to be everywhere, angry people went onto the street, demanded from their governments to break silence. The economic crisis fuelled this process. And astonishing the Wikings on Iceland chased away their government. So we have to dwell on Kinshasa slum. In 1956 began with Patrice Lumumba the uproar against Belges. Congolese wanted to cut throat of Belgians because Congolese suffered so severely from them. Slum of Kinshasa has grown despite of uhuru. Joseph Kabila can only govern by military boot. With or without Nkunda, the problem remains and if he cannot feed Kinshasa slum he will face the same fate as Belgians. When German army supported his election many Congolese thought Germans might be good friends. So thought many emigrants in Germany. But most of them landed in the torture barracks of Joseph Kabila. And when Joseph Kabila was at the eve to loose his war in Kivu, the German president cried for German troops to Goma.
All this must be considered to avoid further defeat. CNDP might disappear with Nkunda or not, the problem remains and is more severe than ever. This is hunger. Neither UN or any other has showed attempts to get this problem resolved. The look to Senegal is worth while. There president Wade said in six years Senegal will not import food any more. And he and his head in FAO know what they say. But what does Joseph Kabila do? He boasts that he had reduced import taxes on food. He fears that with expensive food in Kinshasa slum he might face the same problem like in Nairobi. But with no taxes he cannot pay civil servants or his soldiers. That is the devil circle in which he runs around. That is the same devil circle like in Israel and anywhere else. As it seems this devil circle cracks like in Iceland in its weakest link. It was advised in this Blog to practice shamba power, to build up people's economy. Trying to resolve the problem by military methods will fail. During the war in USSR against Hitler this would never have been achievend if USSR had only relyed on weapons. This lesson is very interesting for peoples attempts to get freedom.

Anonymous said...


Preparez vous pour faire la defence de Nkunda a la Haye(CPI).

Anonymous said...

Chère Antoinette,
Ceci est le next push pour travailler en profondeur le travail fait par les vautours comme Louis Michel qui a fait l'ombudsman durant quelques jours entre les parties en présence et pendant qu'Obasanjo amusait la galerie à Nairobi.

Il faut bien lire et analyser cet article. Il explique fort bien la technique de la baratte ou de secouer l'arbre pour déstabiliser la région afin de la cueillir sans effort ni raté.

Rien n'est innocent ou spontané dans ce qui est écrit jusqu'à la façon de décrire le FDLR vs Nkunda et le CNDP.

Les problèmes économiques et sociaux du Congo datent de longtemps mais il faut charger Kabila et le responsabiliser pour justifier les prochaines mesures à prendre pour remettre ce pays sur pieds. Ils se servent de Nkunda comme témoin et en tant que conséquence de cette incurie. Les responsabilités des européens ne sont pas incluses, bien entendu. Faut pas rêver ...

Comme mentionné, Guillaume Lacaille (eh oui, ICG)est membre des services d'intelligence français. Il doit assurer (comme disent les Antillais) et jouer à l'expert en posant la question de savoir pourquoi Kabila, pour se débarrasser de son ennemi Nkunda, invite Kagame, un pire ennemi.
Il y répond sans ambages en donnant des motifs farfelus.

Ici, il est impensable que Sarkozy+Kouchner (les saintes nitouches) et Michel+de Gucht (les faux ennemis et en écriture) y soient pour quelques chose alors qu'ils voulaient employer leurs forces frappes européennes sinon, leur valet angolais pour éradiquer la vermine tutsi.

Les journalistes feignent de s'étonner de l'irruption brusque de l'armée rwandaise en RDC et des conséquences possibles ou espérées pour ces opérations.

Ce qui est aussi étonnant c'est le brusque réchauffement des relations entre la RDC et la Belgique juste après que le Rwanda s'entendait avec la RCD comme si un nœud venait de se défaire.
Comment décoder ces événements? Il est difficile de le comprendre malgré cette évidence.

Avec les interventions du Rwanda au Congo, on omet volontairement les autres acteurs qui ont un droit de regard: UE à travers la France et la Belgique ou les USA.

Même le FDLR qui est le nœud du problème est oublié sinon en faisant référence à une vielle histoire du génocide au Rwanda. Voire, il est dissous dans la masse des habitants congolais ou dans la forêt proche. Donc, son actualité et son existence sont sans objet, minimisées intentionnellement.

Au contraire, l'expert subtil vient avec la liste non exhaustive des richesses, surtout minières, du pays et tant convoitées par les belligérants pour montrer leurs motivations.
Les autres protagonistes ne sont pas du tout concernés, mais alors là, pas du tout, enfin!! Les ONG finlandais et autres ne sont là que pour les paysans du coin!!

Bref, la suite des événements dépend de tant de paramètres qu'il est illusoire d'en prédire même le 10ème pour le moment.

Ici, tout dépend de la "valeur marchande" des éléments entrant dans les événements et les échanges en cours et à venir.
Les bourses de Londres, Paris, Rome, Zurich+Vatican, Tokyo etc n'en ont pas encore fixer les valeurs.

Par exemple Nkunda peut déjà être considéré comme otage de Kigali et monnaie d'échange contre le FDLR selon les dires des analystes. Mais qu'adviendra-t-il si le FDLR est pris ou pas? Et si sa valeur fléchit avec la chute possible de Kabila?

Le Rwanda peut-il recycler Nkunda dans l'affaire ou même trouver un substitut? C'est difficile voire impossible à réaliser.

Il y a-t-il un un deal entre Kabila, Kagame et Ntaganda après la fin du FDLR? S'ils sont d'accord pour le moment, qu'arrivera-t-il demain?

La position de Nkunda est fort étrange. Il est citoyen congolais et pratiquement prisonnier au Rwanda pour une affaire congolo-congolaise. Aurait-il aussi des dettes et des litiges au Rwanda?
Il faut qu'il termine sa mue de stratège politique sinon qu'il en prenne un et lance sa campagne de pacification des Kivus, Ituri et Maniema. Il a plus d'alliés objectifs qu'il n'y paraît!
Même avec les satellites, cette région est imprenable de l'extérieur.