Monday, 2 March 2009

SITTING ON THE FENCE, THE VULTURES ARE WAITING

To see the result of the strange moves they have helped carve out for the Great Lakes Region's mess. We'll talk about this and Kamere soon, fully swamped in end of term exams the kids are doing now...

Lambert Mende fouls people. Everyone knew FDLR were just going to hide in the bushes and come back to take their positions and new ones. Rwanda tried to neutralize the CNDP to please Joseph Kabila, but who knows if the afandes have not opened wide the door to their foes FDLR. The later have never lost ties with both FARDC and Monuc who would back them when they decide to cause trouble in Rwanda. We have seen that even Ban Ki Moon does not want to leave the place either. The true slogan now should be: no FDLR, no job, it has been that way since 1994. So who can stop them from slaughtering rwandans from the western boarder along the lake and the volcanoe areas?? The Afandes may be allowed to rush back, or may be they haven't left. And the show in Goma was just that, a show.

And no LRA no job:

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

In this matter, many considerations may be said.
Lambert Mende and his "contractors" managed to plan and execute their "odd" plans before people could realize what was going on.
They fouled everybody and FDLR also was caught badly. The FDLR staff couldn't expect such treatise from their Congolese "friends & bro" after almost 10 comfortable years. This probably is what annoyed Kamerhe and his club.

As far as it was reported, the RDF and FARDC swift intervention in Kivu was a simple hit-and-go for a short period, as we could imagine. Actually, this timing was enough to dismantle the main FDLR infrastructure since this was the military target, including CNDP merging. Arresting Nkunda after Ntaganda putsch was a tricky and effective digression.
FDLR could run and hide in the bush but not to stand and to protect their sanctuaries.

Unless, some special French (EU like) forces do the move to help FDLR rebels, they are done. They don't really have local support from the Congolese, being even Rwandese, and the logistic issues are unworkable if the FARDC plus RDF are present and are monitoring everything. Satellites may help much more but not necessary.

This is the main gain in the join venture. At least, we can expect FDLR will close the genocide and violence cycle by surrendering completely.

Within few days, all the deputies and senators won't mind anymore about that issue if peace is back. MONUC will proceed with small jobs like baby-sitting etc. Otherwise, there is no more job for them with the today global economy recession.

This will let the next Congolese biggest problems being addressed: the macro and micro economies are dead and buried!
Again, the CNDP should set up its own way of view to tackle those challenges.
Shall we see another similar join economical venture of Congo and Rwanda? It sound like a real miracle. But maybe, this is what the vultures are waiting for: to take benefits and mineral advantages from the Rwanda and Congo work. Qui vivra, verra.

Bagambiki

Antoinette said...

I am not really sure FDLR are dismantled. French mercenaries within or without Monuc, before 1999 and after have worked very hard to set their networks. These networks work also for Kabila. I do not see how hitting at some points in North Kivu, without even heading south, could weaken those FDLR who support JKK directly in his institutions in Kinshasa. So I am not keen at all when it comes to talking about success in this matter. There could have been success should the original CNDP military, political and reconciliatory strategy have been taken into account. I feel like you are indirectly minimizing both the provoked putsch and the arrest of the CNDP leader, whereas I believe that therein lies the weakness of the operation. Only short term history will tell how much success such sudain and shortlived operation can yield. You may probably know something I don't!

Anonymous said...

Dear Antoinette, it is really difficult to explain so much by blog, otherwise, texts become to long and unreadable (use of short, as possible, phrases & paragraphs, simple words, etc). So sorry for that. Of course, also I really don't know so much and sure not more than you do. I often use my feelings and my experience.

Of course FDLR aren't at all dismantled as such but their main lethal tools and military organization. Without those means and true incentives, they are hopeless and really harmless at wide level.
Here, I rely more on the Master of job and on HQ of RDF& FARDC says. I guess everything was well prepared and nothing to mention about it as for me.
Besides, the psychological effects should be even more destructive.
Those FDLR are everywhere, including in Rwanda, and are well organized by their EU sponsors. As they are not innate killers they can be useful against those sponsors.

Another thing is, all those small rebel groups merged in FARDC after having been highly dangerous and negative. In fact, they now are dead or disarmed.

Of course any human work is never perfect. So is the present military intervention of the two armies in Kivu and its convention.

You know, the Nkunda and CNDP issue is a painful one for all of us, including those Afendi. If they can have the same feeling as we do and have suffered what we did, and I hope there are so created, things weren't easy for them to decide and to execute what they did.

All conventions and contracts have their prices and sacrifices/offerings. By guessing, the offer of Kabila and his sponsors was more than what they could expect from Nairobi talks (involving possible fights): straight, less expensive in terms of human and time expenditures.

More, that offer has no easy renunciation and draw back. This is, Kabila can't change up his mind without loosing all. He is plugged and burn wired. Those FDLR aren't really dangerous since they are dependent and still have commodities to loose if they try any move against him.
However, CNDP needs some better self reliance and has to stay in standby till there are reliable guaranties on that.

As third party solution whenever Kabila decides to turn back, Mushaki battle could be an evident option but more destructive for all, including the sponsors.
They are all committed to succeed.

Bagambiki