The hour Joseph Kabila has been waiting for is here: he wanted war. He wanted to secure the support of his allies in business, i.e. SA and TZ, so everything was ready. His long time dream of taming the most tenacious Movement for change was, in his mind and that of his cronies, about to be fulfilled. Indeed is there any doubt when you know his propaganda agents are boasting of miraculously acquired weapons (http://nanojv.wordpress.com/2013/07/16/fardc-jesterka/) to rout out Makenga's men? Anyway, before going into Kabila's propaganda, assisted by the remnant of Kifwafwa whose bitterness only wishes Makenga would fail, let's put together the latest situation. Since I was teaching the whole day and then found myself in a 2 hours traffic jam, it took me sometime to get to know how are things this evening.
FARDC have been shelling away their bombs the whole day and freely since, it is not in the interest of M23 to respond tit for tat, obviously for strategic reasons. I do not claim to know M23 inner military strategy, no, not at all. But here is my take on this: FARDC has chosen Kanyaruchinya for their operation, close to civilian populations, can you imagine what would happen if M23 responds with the same? Secondly, our very own "Incredible Monusco" has allowed FARDC to use the UN for this assault, knowing very well tha in all warfare fairness, M23 would not attack a UN facility. It took a call from Bertrand Bisimwa to Monusco to warn them on the consequences of allowing FARDC to escalate violence from their vicinity. Since Monusco was duly reminded of their own role, they had no choice but demand from FARDC to move away from UN facilty, which exposed their vulnerability. Without the backing of UN flags and blue helmet, all this boasting with bombs becomes shortlived. Moreover, to take a distance from FARDC abit late though, Monusco has backed off and gone back to Goma. This is interesting and it shows the caliber of these UN men so heavily paid to do absolutely nothing. While FARDC is fixated with the strategy designed for them by the UN brigade, which was to cut M23 off any possible supplies, it happens to be that, while I write this, M23 still hold Mutaho/Kibati, that is the key to the North of the Province's capital, and Mugunga which the key to the crucial Goma-Sake gate. Monusco cannot believe that for two days or is it 3, FARDC have been pounding away, yet they have no control over the situation at all.
At this point, you can understand why intox and propaganda are having a field day to convince people of what Mende is dreaming off: to announce that for once FARDC have defeated the Movement for change as I call M23. I have received calls from people telling me these guys have been totally defeated. Just wait and see. But just beware, particularly our people around Goma: this intoxication will grow faster and bigger when FARDC finish their bombs and start doing what they do best: running away. And you'll see all humanitarian NGOs multiply by the minute to help, who and for what?