Wednesday, 6 November 2013


We know that already. The Vuvuzela Mende can only confirm that to us with what he's just said. Abusing both M23 and the facilitator, he is saying that there is no point for Kinshasa to sign anything with a rebellion that ceased hostilities by itself. What a surprise, Mr. Mende! The reason why Kabila is more stubborn than ever before is a compound of a number of things. I will try to summarize them.

1) Ceasing hostilities responds not to Kabila wishes, but to the International community which worked on a peace agreement in Uganda subjecting its signature to a prior condition: that M23 stops the rebellion. That has been achieved by M23 withdrawal. What was supposed to follow, was the Kinshasa government to comply with its own part in the already drawn agreement. That part includes specific things of which we only got some few hints from the media, e.g. return of refugees, the eradication of FDLR, and who knows, the declaration of Kivu as a disaster zone, etc... With Mende's declaration, you can see that none of this is going to happen. The question is that, since we all knew this is Kinshasa's position, why did the International community push so hard for M23 to comply and now they cannot do the same with Kinshasa? The answer is that they stand with Kinshasa, no matter what. Which leads us to the second point.

2) Why is the International community on the side of Kinshasa and is not putting any pressure kabila to comply with the fabricated agreement? Several options here. For one, if you have observed the SADC move in this whole mess, you can see that the International Community is backing Kikwete and Zuma to champion the FDLR agenda in the region, and behind FDLR, you could also place ADF-NALU. It is no secret that Kikwete has vowed to bring FDLR to Rwanda and force the regime to negotiate with them. Which he has done with the full backing of the International community via Kobler's MONUSCO and FIB. Under this umbrella, FDLR are at the door of Rwanda. UN forces have done more than bringing them this close. The recent bombings were not threatening just the country of origin of FDLR, but also Uganda. This is how Tanzania and South-Africa are working hard to replace Leopold II and take the DRC for their own property, which they will certainly share with the Western powers according to the representation we see of them around the so called Kampala talks. It's still about the scramble for Africa but using Africans themselves. We can only guess that Kikwete is doing this to build some clout badly needed to win the next elections in his country. It's about money and I am sure he is paid handsomely for his work in the Kivu on behalf of bigger predators. But does the money he receives a sufficient reason for him to support a move that can set fire on the region? Is he the one who will bring a mess similar to the so-called Arab spring in these mountains? I think the Nkrumah of this continent cannot believe what has happened to their hopes of a free Africa.Talking about elections bring us to the next point. 

3) Kabila's re-election in 2016. If he was to loose in the Kivu, then he could kiss bye bye his re-election. He thought the national consultations would hand him a re-election. It doesn't look like that just now. He needs badly a victory over M23. And his sponsors who keep him in power needed it even more that himself. That is how we got the United Nations fighting wars instead of keeping peace. What a pity we can't accuse the UN of crimes against humanity!!!! We didn't do it in 1994 with the sinister operation Turquoise, and they are hoping no one will accuse the UN of working with FDLR because Human Right Watch is on their side in this. Besides, Kabila hopes that the UN is there, not only to defeat M23 for him and entrench FDLR in his army, he also hopes that this same UN (Tanzanian and South-African forces) with the help of experienced FDLR in all matters related to Dongolese elections, will hand him the votes from Kivu once again. So don't be surprised if FIB considers its job finished after M23 and starts working for Kabila's re-election. If you think they are going to fight any other armed group, you are plain wrong. The hope for a free DRC is still very far. And it's not the fault of M23: it's the International Community's and Kabila's. As for M23, as I said yesterday, the battle is not over, it is being transformed and the way of fighting it will just adapt, after all human beings are rational beings.

No comments: