Tuesday, 7 April 2009

NI VA-T-EN GUERRE, NI PACIFISTE

C'est la définition que le président rdcongolais donne de lui-même. C'est à en rire, surtout quand on a suivi attentivement sa fixation militariste comme solution des problèmes politiques sérieux à la base de l'instabilité du pays en générale et de l'Est en particulier. Il sera un jour possible de faire la chronologie de son option militaire mise en pratique principalement contre le CNDP de Laurent Nkunda. Et assez directement contre la population qui n'a plus connu des jours paisibles depuis quinze ans. Cette auto-définition ses alliés d'aujourd'hui doivent s'en méfier plus que jamais. Elle ne veut absolument rien dire. Un peu comme son leitmotiv fameux au lendemain des élections. Vous vous souvenez du "fini la recréation"? Et pourtant la recréation continue de plus belle. Il suffit de jeter un coup d'oeil sur le folklore organisé au parlement. Ceux qui ont cru que la démission de Kamerhe signait la fin ou l'étouffement de l'implosion commencent à constater qu'il y a une sorte de bombe qui se prépare à éclater, et le ciel nous garde de ses conséquences. Enfin, ce qui m'intéresse c'est la situation de l'Est. Les alliés du président ayant signé des accords avec le gouvernement dans la dernière semaine de mars sont forcés, par les événements, de se rendre à l'évidence. Il ne sert à rien de signer des accords de ce genre avec Kinshasa et son homme fort pour la simple raison évidente que ce dernier ne remplit jamais ses promesses. Ce qui veut dire que la lutte pour la liberté du peuple kivutien est toujours à refaire. Sa fondation a été erigée bien avant et elle n'a rien à voir avec les accords secrets de décembre 2008. La lutte doit reprendre ou continuer à partir de cette fondation là. Ceux qui ont coopéré avec Kinshasa, au moins sur terrain, devront recourir au bon sens avec courage et revenir sur cette fondation. C'est seulement à partir de là qu'il soit possible de rectifier le tir. Reconnaitre un échec, une erreur c'est déjà le début de sa rectification. Et ce n'est nullement une faiblesse.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Well said Antoinette;let those who have ears to hear hear.

I find it difficult to believe people could have lost their heads completly. Martin

Antoinette said...

Thanks for reading my blog Martin. La lutte continue!

Anonymous said...

Ni l'un ni l'autre? Peut-être! Serait-il adepte du Taoïsme de Lao Tseu pour la recherche de la voie du juste milieu? Ce serait étrange pour ce garçon militariste et peu conciliant ...
Mais, surement affairiste si on revoit les objects, car il y en avait bien beaucoup, de la visite de Sarko et Cie (Ma'me Anne Lauvergeon) et des maneuvres de George Forrest, facilitateur d'Areva!

A lire dans le lien suivant qui est gratuit à condition de s'inscrire:
http://www.africaintelligence.fr/AMF/detail/detail_articles/p_detail.asp?doc_i_id=58483351&context=can&contextinfos=chan_sommaire_amf&service=gra&codeaffilie=a_indigo

Les autres liens sont payant et donc moins intéressants.

Comme quoi, la RDC est une grosse convoitise de la part de ces faux Noko d'outre-mer ...
Espérons que l'habitant ne va plus manquer sa shikwanga/bugali au goût d'uranium ou de Coltan ...

Bagambiki

Anonymous said...

Rupert Neudeck/Cap Anamur/Green Helmets rejoices about Nkunda's arrest in Rwanda.
He calls him a trouble maker. As German media repeatedly reported about Nkunda's arrest and cherished it as the beginnung of peace in Congo, this is quite remarkable as he tells that Rwanda has a great future in Africa.
http://www.dradio.de/dlf/sendungen/interview_dlf/945742/
Of course the wish is the father of his thoughts. But it shows the double tongue German government uses on African matters. It is useful to repeat the following again and again:
"13.05.2008 15:56
As the rebels continue to cause chaos, President Paul Kagame is in Germany where he has
urged its government to act on the FDLR leader Dr. Ignace Murwanashyaka - now living in Bonn.
"The German government needs to address this problem," President Kagame said following a
meeting with Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin.
Mrs. Merkel said Germany was looking into the issue closely, adding that some of the people
concerned were under UN travel sanction and had had their bank accounts frozen."
In the meantime Kagame has managed a deal and has arrested Nkunda to satisfy Mrs. Merkel and BAYER. So once again the world can admire the usefulness of socalled NGOs such as these Green Helmets. Great efforts are done to continue theft of minerals from Congo. This is the background of that intended welfare for Rwanda.
But so far just words have arrived but no money. We wait and see how much Kagame has been cheated by glasspearls.
L.

Anonymous said...

I don't think Kagame is the one to be cheated for a long time and to remain believing tomorrow will maybe be better when crossing praying hands or fingers ...
Kagame and Rwanda are better than yesterday because they managed to address their problems better than many other presidents and countries with similar if not lighter issues.

The FDLR affair and related issues aren't ripe enough to push further the Chess pieces. Let's suppose we are still in a kind of observation period before any sound move.
This can be reported in Kinyarwanda as "guca umuvuno".

We can suppose the guy Rupert knows a bit more than us about peace in Congo. He relies on several factors that are not including the present and next Congolese economical and social situations. These are obviously catastrophic. What should we expect from that population and from people like Nkunda?

That's why unfortunately things are otherwise if not worse than before with the Nkunda's arrest.

What should we expect in the AGLR (African Great Lakes Region) when Congo and Kabila, helped by FDLR and EU, are reinforcing their army and weaponry? War of course as usual.

Pr Reintjens is confirming it in his new book, "The Great African War". As a bird of ill omen and a well known (so said) Specialist of Central and East Africa is arguing about some next explosion in Rwanda.

So, we should think that EU is preparing a strong retaliation program against poor Congolese and mostly against Rwandans.

RuKabu

Antoinette said...

Always a pleasure to have you guys engaged in a lively conversation over the only issue dealt with on this blog! Thanks for that. Now a question for RuKabu, you really do not think that Kagame has not been the one cheated this time? I am sure his people are working round the clock to limit the damage caused by a hasty kind of strategic move as I said from the very beginning of the return of Rwandan troupes in DRC. Of all people, these same strategists should have known that trashing a natural ally was not going to solve anything. The adventure in my view has exposed excessive confidence on the their side of the boarder. And as you well know, excess like defect is never virtue. However, a mistake faced as it is can lead to better approaches. Despite everything, I trust that some sensible minds will realize to which extent their natural ally is still and remains the best for any lasting solution for both countries.

Anonymous said...

Rukabu,

I`m surprised that you should treat the fact that Congo is reinforcing its army as an ill omen. While every country is putting the cause of most of Congo`s woes on the fact that is doesn`t have a real army. I see that you don`t like Congo.

The only way for peace and stability to come to the region is if in each country the different deparments of state are fully functional. And that includes the army.

Anonymous said...

Thank you Antoinette for your question because it explains a bit how we could be misunderstanding all those events that are like a big iceberg in a deep see.

Let's put things straight. Beginning with the question of the last posting that mistreats my say, it's about Pr Filip Reyntejens (see google for more) that I am talking with his new book. That's why I take him for a bird of ill omen when he declares Rwanda explosion is for soon!?

Pretending that I do not like Congo because I am against a Congolese army has no sense.
Any good political and social analyst is able to see that the Congolese army, historically, is with corrupted (supposed) leaders the worse factor and agent of national disaster.

This is, since the "confection" of the nation by Leopold II, the army (known then under the name of Force Publique) has been working always for the Belgian authorities to tame indigenous population including those from Rwanda and Burundi till this day I post this message. I think nobody can't deny it.

What is strange, many Congolese do not at all understand that odd situation.
Congo needs badly not only a fair good army but other assets (health, education, culture, etc) to protect the nation and its citizens against treats from Europe and USA.

Besides, if Congo government and some Congolese citizens are thinking about setting up a strong army to fight their neighboring countries for Noko sake, they are taking the wrong and very dangerous path.

Resuming Antoinette's question, I would say that President Kagame and the RDF Staff made a clear but short term deal with Kabila and his team. But this of course couldn't be without some acknowledgment from EU and probably USA.

Nkunda was a serious threat for those men from abroad and he had to be stopped and removed quickly.
We should remember how several solutions were proposed all around (More MONUC soldiers, Angola, Artemis II, etc) but all failed without a clear explanation.

The other party accepted for a while to let the RDF enter the North Kivu zone and destroy FDLR as much as it was possible. We can suppose that Nkunda's journey to Kinshasa is not included in the deal. Unfortunately, Congolese and Kamerhe were included in the deal but on the bad side. (abagabo bararya imbwa zikishyura).

The question is what next move mostly if the situation in Kivu is not improving? And this can't be otherwise. And this is where Kagame could be the winner and Kabila the loser. The later managed to delay the issues to enable some support to arrive: cash, more MONUC troops and political cleansing or dry cleaning...

We also should think that playing again the FDLR game against Tutsi will be the worse for both parties but with a devastating effect on Kabila side ...
At least, I suppose so. This even when taking into account the full credits from World Bank, IMF and many others of the kind.

Rukabu

Anonymous said...

Mr Rukabu,

I undestand the historic fact that the Congolese army has been a tool of oppression in the hands of the rulers. But that does not all defeat the necessity for a strong army capable of protecting the territorial integrity of the country, putting an end to all local militias and all such adventures.

Health, education is good. But without security and stability, all that becomes empty rhetoric. See what Kagame has done. First security and stability, and the rest followed.

As long as Congo will not be effectively controlled and governed. We cannot even have the remotest dream of any development. Et cela passe par une rehabilitation d`une armee au service de la nation, du pays

Anonymous said...

Mr "nobody"
Though I roughly agree with you for the principle of a national army, I doubt we are on the same register of the objectives and methods to build a national army.
You idea seems like putting the cart before the horse. But I may be wrong.

This is why I support in general and at bottom the views (the spirit) of Nkunda but not all his methods to build that true national Congolese army. This, like others did it all over the world. Uganda and Rwanda are close examples.

Accordingly, Nkunda is not welcome and has to be disabled for Sarkozy, Merkel and Louis Michel etc. That's why also Kagame is another danger for them and Pr Filip Reyntjens is talking about next Rwanda explosion. This logically implies that the next after Nkunda should be Kagame and Museveni.

But if you mean generating army forces from scratch can work by using foreign mostly remote agents like France or Belgium, I can't join your way of thinking. I hope you understand why.

I take Kivu and surrounding nations for a genuine "biblical like" area where people are cultivating to harvest and breading livestock for their own use. Typically, local people are living less in villages but more scattered. Mining is a subsidiary activity with scarce unbalanced income for local people but highly important for foreigners (merely international companies).

This is why definitely we all need strong and plenty national and regional institutions to preserve our economies and lives. Yes lives, because to many people are dying for that Western Noko sake.

More can be said on that but this is not the main subject.
What I believe is that we are all in danger as long as Congo is under foreign ruling enemies.
For instance, I don't like the way Sarkozy or any other are entering in Congo like he did just for his own or third party interests without any concern about Congolese and broadly about Africans.
We can't accept being slaves on site in our own properties.

RuKabu

Mr Nobody said...

Mr Rukabu,

I will agree with you on the fact that we don`t have the same views on how to build a strong army for the Congo. How can you possibly use the Rwandese army as a close example. An ethnically based army? Probably what Nkunda had in view?

Here is what I think. First Congo should devise a security plan. With a clear understanding of the security needs of the country and how to meet this needs. Then see how foreign instructors can fill in. Not what has been done up to now. Where the french, the belgians, monuc and I don`t know what all seemed to be training a brigade here and there in some kind of mambo jambo. No coherent plan set.

In fact both Kagame and Museveni have had foreign instructors training their armies and officers.

Here is why we need a very strong army:

http://www.radiookapi.net/index.php?i=53&l=0&c=0&a=22898&da=&hi=0&of=5&s=&m=2&k=0&r=all&sc=0&id_a=0&ar=0&br=qst

Anonymous said...

Mr Nobody
I see you are confusing several things like strong army and security or authority. Americans in Iraq or in Afghanistan are using their really strong armies but are unable to warrant security and authority among the local population. I remark you don't seem to know why. Using the power of your strong army to break the neck the population is destroying your country. I suppose you don't understand that!!

About ethnic in the army, RDF is using only Rwandans from all countries. FARDC, speaking basically only Lingala, are dominated by Katangese ethnic group and almost no high rank officers and soldiers from Kivu mostly none from Banyarwanda community but FDLR.

As far as I know, the CNDP members are from all local communities including even people out of Kivu.
Just check the Staff members for their names and other identities.

As for your military security assessment, you don't tell so much about it to know who is to blame ...
Besides, whatever are the origin of instructors, the main point is the way Congolese Military Staff is managing the whole. This is why they have been defeated by Nkunda's army. this also can explain why or how NRA of Museveni rooted out Obote's forces and why RPA/RDF of Kagame defeated Habyarimana's forces and destroyed easily Mobutu's FAZ. Sorry for that, those are facts.

RuKabu

Mr Nobody said...

Mr Rukabu,

I see that you are willingly distorting the truth. That the rwandese army is mainly dominated by the tutsis is known by almost everyone except maybe you. That there is a disproportionate representation of rwandophones, especially tutsis, in the army seems to be ignored by only you. Please try to get hold of the public lecture organised at the London School of Economics on eastern Congo. One of the speakers pointed clearly at that fact. Which according to him is a cause of worry. I bet you have come across the list that clearly stated the names of Tutsi officers and their ranks in Kabila's army.

As for the representation of other Congolese in the CNDP militia, I will simply say 'mentez, mentez, il en restera toujuors quelques choses.'

Please, ne melangez pas le genre. The US is an unwanted occupying force. The FARDC is, and ought to be, the national army. Unless you are telling me that you consider the presence of the FARDC in the Kivus as a foreign occupying force. In which case, I will question your national allegiance.

As regards what you call my security assessment, it is in no way a security assessment or strategy. I am simply repeating what everyone analyzing the governement's management of the Congo is saying. The Congolese government has no coherent plan as regards the security needs of the country. Making it difficult even for those willing to help to come in. There is no real framework. And that is the reason why se do not have a real army. Even the UN secretary general has complained about the lack of a real security plan on how to reform the army.

Anonymous said...

Mr Nobody

Most probably the RDF Staff should be using mainly Tutsi but also Hutu as due. However, it's impossible to tell if RDF troops are more Tutsi or not. And, so are all nations in Africa and elsewhere in the world since it's not a real critical issue if the country enjoys a democratic regime. Besides, that supposed Tutsi majority in the army isn't at all representing the whole Tutsi community when supposing it has a reliable and fully identifiable reference which it hasn't, being rather a private one.

We rather should question and think about commitment, dedication and loyalty of those RDF men and women to the nation and to citizens.

Unlike the Habyarimana's army that was exclusively Hutu and mostly from one or two northern regions of Rwanda for high rank officers, RDF for now could be featuring an allowable national mirroring representation.

We also have to consider that most of FAR, the army of Habyarimana and the tandem Kambanda-Bagosora, executed widely the genocide planned by French & Belgian Staffs with some other European countries. This unfortunately created a huge vacuum of Human resources including patriotic Hutu on top of the abyssal mass killing of Tutsi. They killed about 1 million of Tutsi and almost all educated Hutu that were against their killing enterprise. Therefore, it still is difficult to find enough qualified people for all posts. Rwanda has to hire from abroad including many Congolese.

Meantime, who can tell us which group is dominating the FARDC today when you exclude foreign influence of Noko? We can suppose no more Ngbandi alias Bangala, isn't it? So, which one?

Here I am not talking from London or from Paris grasping a sheet of paper written by a honorable specialist of Africa playing h-is/er role of referee. So, referencing those NGO people has no authority.

Being Force Publique, FAZ or FARDC today, they are all no national army in any case but mercenaries working on behalves of dictators and colonialists. That's why FARDC are raping, killing and looting in Kivu or elsewhere. That's why we can consider them as foreign forces occupying Congo. As long as that situation don't change, Congo will remain in disastrous conditions.

From Kabila or any other dictator up to the simple soldier or the normal citizen, from the richest up to the poorest, everybody is living in fear and with hate of others. Poor "rich" Congo and its inhabitants. Unfortunately, this is the best situation for all those religion merchants. It's a pity ... No Congolese is able to say he is feeling really happy unless he/she is abroad!?

RuKabu