DOUBLE DILEMMA

Joseph Kabila and his allies from the so called International Community have cheated the people of the Kivu for so long. And they are always sure to get away with it because of the fact that, once miserable, people loose all energy to do anything and much less to fight for their right. That is why Congolese are still hoping the UN with its FIB and its MONUSCO will bring them peace. Such levels of blindness remain impossible to explain today. A couple of weeks ago, we saw FARDC flexing its belligerent muscle, using both FDLR and MONUSCO. Everyone applauded and declared the end of the rebels advancing march towards Goma. Mamadou was celebrated as if he won any battles. Despite all the noise, he has surprisingly conquered no positions whatsoever. The horrible profanation by FARDC were never an issue to the International Community. In order to create distraction around such horror, HRW came to the defense of Kabila and his despicable army by issuing another one of their never ending production of reports, meant to keep this region under the control of neo-colonialism. However all this is irrelevant when one is interested in reading events to detect any signs of where peace for the Kivu could come from.

Certainly not from the belligerent Kabila, nor from the no less belligerent UN FIB, with the two new champions of recolonizing the regions: I mean Kikwete and Zuma. Kabila thought that the today's stalemate is playing in his favour. Not so clear now that he is faced with a double dilemma: he does not know what to do if the FIB cannot attack rebels as he hoped and as we can see, I mean, no one can see this FIB attacking now; Kabila does not know whether he can attack rebels using his FARDC and FDLR, he knows they have failed in their attempt. Moreover, he has shunned the talks in Kampala for months. The UN has even allowed his minister of foreign affairs to use a terrible language talking about the conflict in the East, still hoping their combined effort would deter the rebels. So what can the rais do in front of his double dilemma? He always has some other options, but they are always more irrational than the already used ones, and as such, are also meant to fail. This is what happened when his ally in Goma, the head of the so called civil society - my friend used to call it in French "si vile"- issued an ultimatum to the UN forces, FIB and MONUSCO combined, to attack the rebels, or go back to their respective countries. 

At the UN they declare not to have received any ultimatum at all. Those who don't know the region are asking themselves who is Kavota to issue an ultimatum to the UN? Those of us who call that place home, we know he is the voice of Kabila, particularly at a time when with few days' distance, we can see that all the hype around Mamadou was just smoke. What I mean is that, Kabila might be using Kavota to try and put pressure on FIB and MONUSCO to fight for him and win a war neither his father nor himself have ever managed to win. Not easy to overcome people fighting for their own freedom, I say so often. If this is the alternative left for the rais, can it work for him or against him? Let see what happens when the population of Goma harangued by Kavota chases away the UN using their bare hands to do the chasing with stones. Will that same population turn and embrace the same Kabila who has personally overseen the total deterioration of the province bringing it to its knees? Might work, might not work at all.